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Old 07-09-2008, 01:06 AM   #11 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Dougster View Post
Stopped at a relatively large, multi-brand tractor dealership on my way home from my little Vermont mini-vacation. Without getting into the various brands carried, it suffices to say that the dealer's brand new "rolling stock" on the lot was down more than 66% from when I visited the same dealership last summer. Implements, attachments, trailers et al were down as well but not quite as much... maybe 40-50%. I went inside to get some prices on a few odd implements and parts... and struck up a conversation with the parts and sales folks. I damn near went into shock and almost fell on the floor with the story they told me!

Contrary to the usual tales of "doom and gloom" I've been hearing lately from everyone else in any kind of business (other than foreclosure & bankruptcy attorneys, of course), they told me that business was "booming in all departments" and that they couldn't keep enough stock on the lot! They said new tractors were on order to replace all that had been sold lately, but the manufacturers just couldn't supply them fast enough with the high demand they were experiencing!

So what do you think? Was I being fed a total line of BS??? Or should I get my butt going and try to rekindle my long abandoned dream of owning & operating a successful, big money making tractor dealership!

Dougster™
It must NOT have been a JD AG dealership, because they are almost entirely build to order now-a-days...with a few spec machines for last minute purchasers...My local JD dealer has one 5525, one 5425 with FEL, and a smattering of CUTs...and a fair amount of used tractors...AND for equipment he has one large JD Haybine and miscellaneous rakes, tedders and several CLAAS Harvesters and only ONE wagon gear!!

However, his repair shop is going gang-busters keeping everyone's older equipment running...

Paul in VT

I used to own an ant farm but had to give it up. I couldn't find tractors small enough to fit it.
-- Steven Wright
 
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Old 07-09-2008, 10:08 AM   #12 (permalink)
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Just driving past several different dealers in Northern Alabama recently, I noticed that their stock seemed to be reduced by half or more. And I've seen several trucks hauling in new tractors to these same dealerships within the past two months. With wheat, corn, etc. prices going up so much, I think the farmers are taking advantage of their cash flow this year. Wheat has passed cotton as Alabama's number 1 cash crop this year.

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Fred
 
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Old 07-09-2008, 10:18 AM   #13 (permalink)
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Just driving past several different dealers in Northern Alabama recently, I noticed that their stock seemed to be reduced by half or more. And I've seen several trucks hauling in new tractors to these same dealerships within the past two months. With wheat, corn, etc. prices going up so much, I think the farmers are taking advantage of their cash flow this year. Wheat has passed cotton as Alabama's number 1 cash crop this year.

Regards

Fred
I guess the bottom line is that current dealer inventory is the result of two key factors: What they had ordered for this year vs. what they have managed to sell. I'm betting that the real truth is that fewer tractors were ordered and that they managed to sell a good chunk of that reduced quantity. As many have pointed out: Better to order and carry less inventory and end up needing to order stuff in than to be stuck with lots of leftover inventory at season's end.

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Old 07-09-2008, 04:17 PM   #14 (permalink)
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A couple points here....
Concerning dealerships - It all depends on what part of the country you are in, what the primary cash crops are, and whether or not the local dealership caters to full-scale Ag or acreage/residential. For the most part, Ag dealers in this part of the country are all still doing well. Anyone around here that is a grain farmer is doing decent, if not very well - regardless of how much they might complain. Livestock farmers seem to be having a harder time, but then again we had a run on new skidloaders for farmers in the last few weeks and sold more than we had in stock. There are some issues getting high-horse tractors but it's not impossible to find them. Really the only thing that is not flying off the lot are lawnmowers, which makes sense since a good percentage of those go to non-farmers.
How long will it last for us? Hard to say. Farmers around here were fortunate to do well last fall, and it looks to be heading in that direction again for this fall. If we were 200 miles to the east or 200 miles to the west, things probably wouldn't be doing so well, with touches of drought last year and bits of flooding this year. So again, it all depends on what a dealer focuses on, and where they're at.

As for car dealerships around here, they're not doing horribly well - just like they're not doing well elsewhere. Truck and SUV sales are both down. I think American car companies continued riding the SUV wave too long, even after the Katrina-induced scare with fuel prices. Sure they have some fuel-efficient vehicles, but that's not where the bulk of their investment has lain (considering both development and marketing). People nowadays aren't buying cars unless they have to, and those that buy lean toward the brands that have marketed themselves as fuel efficient. I think the foreign car companies just did a better job of it.
The car industry really doesn't track well with the Ag Equipment industry so it's hard to judge one by looking at the other.

Just my 4 cents (2 cents per topic)

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